When it comes to investing, many people focus their attention solely on finding the “perfect” strategy. What many people fail to recognize, however, is the fact that all forms of investment markets have “seasons” just like the very predictable weather patterns of spring, summer, fall and winter.
For example, it is fairly well-known that election year stock markets perform very well. If we step back, and analyze the performance of the stock market through out its documented history, we will see a very predictable pattern of performance.
For example, years ending with 0 through 5 are poorly performing or negative stock market years. Years ending with 6 are generally transition years, with years 7 through 9 being strong to extremely strong. There are, of course, other factors affecting investment seasons, such as interest-rate cycle and peak spending cycles, and there are no guarantees that any particular year will achieve a specific performance target. However, rather than simply looking for a strategy (which obviously would have worked for the author during an appropriate cycle), it is important to match strategy with the broad trends.
While it is obviously no guarantee of success, your odds will increase that a long stock strategy will be successful in the last part of the decade, while selling options or purchasing money market instruments may be a better strategy for the early part of a decade.
I have found this over the years to be the most effective way of managing the markets. Regardless, always keep in mind the protection of your capital, and always invest accordingly.
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